Polymarket has been instructed to cease activity in the Netherlands by the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), the Dutch gambling regulator, which has accused the firm of illegal gambling activity.
The KSA has told Polymarket to cease activity immediately or receive a fine of €420,000 (£366,000) per week, with a maximum penalty of €840,000. The KSA has stated that it may impose a turnover-based fine at a later date if non-compliance continues.
US-founded Polymarket is one of the biggest prediction markets, arguably the biggest one globally. In the Netherlands, it has been active via a company registered as Adventure One OSS Inc, which trades under the Polymarket brand.
Predictions markets have been growing in visibility over the past two years, and the regulatory picture around them remains highly mixed. In the Netherlands, the regulator is taking a firm stance against the platforms.
It appears that the KSA became aware of Polymarket after the platform offered trades on Dutch elections, presumably the October 2025 general election. The KSA considers this a form of betting, and subsequently contacted the firm, but states that it received no response.
Ella Seijsener, the KSA’s Director of Licensing and Supervision, said: “Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands. These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders.
“Besides the social risks of these kinds of predictions (for example, the potential influence on elections), we conclude that this constitutes illegal gambling. Anyone without a KSA license has no business in our market. This also applies to these new gambling platforms.”
CFTC makes stance crystal clear
This is the latest in a long list of regulatory hurdles that the predictions platform has run into in Europe, and has played out strikingly similar to what took place in Portugal. The Portuguese regulator had issued a cease and desist order to Polymarket after it was found to be offering trades on the country’s presidential election, held earlier this month.
The firm has also been blocked in France, Belgium and Romania. However, the firm was able to secure entry to arguably the world’s most lucrative market for prediction platforms, its founding nation of the US, via an acquisition last year.
This ended years of exile, beginning back in 2022 when Polymarket agreed to block all US customers from accessing its platform as part of a deal with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Under the second presidency of Donald Trump, the federal perspective on predictions has changed a lot and the CFTC has taken a much more hands off approach. Actually, if the newly announced membership of the Innovation Advisory Committee is anything to go by, the CFTC seems to be encouraging predictions.
The Committee’s new members include Playmarket Chief Executive Officer, Shaynae Coplan, alongside Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi; Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase; Terry Duffy, Chair and CEO of CME Group; Christian Genetski, President of FanDuel; Jason Robins, CEO of DraftKings; Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com; Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood.
Micahel Selig, the Chair of the CFTC, has also expressed desire to create a federal regulatory framework for prediction platforms. He previously stated that he would ‘defer to the courts’ regarding predictions, but in a recent Washington Post op-ed said that he wants to ‘deliver the minimum effective dose of regulation’.
DraftKings CEO Robins responded positively to the CFTC’s new stance: “We view this direction as constructive. Clear rules should reward operators with strong compliance and responsible engagement infrastructure, and support the expansion of sports-related predictions over time.”
It’s not all rosy for predictions in the US, however. At the state level, various gambling commissions are involved in litigation with prediction platforms, and allegations of insider trading have also fueled negative media headlines.
The gambling industry itself has also been pushing back with lobbying even while two of its biggest players, FanDuel and DraftKings, are actively getting involved in the scene.
Selig has now doubled down, however, in defence of predictions. In an announcement posted on X today, the CFTC Chair revelled that the regulator has filed a ‘friend of the court brief’ to assert its jurisdiction over derivatives markets and challenge state litigation against prediction markets.
“Today the CFTC is taking an important step to ensure these markets have a place here in America and have the integrity, resilience and vibrancy that our derivatives markets deserve,” he said. “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear – we will see you in court.”
I have some big news to announce… pic.twitter.com/3OBNTaOnIL
— Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) February 17, 2026
Will predictions hit Africa?
Developments in the US threw Polymarket, Kalshi and others into the spotlight, but in Europe they have had a much more chilly reception.
The bans against Polymarket are testament to this, while the UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has made it clear that it will require a licence from prediction markets – something no prediction market operator would want to do, except maybe gaming operators expanding into the sector.
This rise in popularity isn’t limited to Europe and North America. For the betting industry, various markets across Africa have been catching attention in recent years; for prediction markets, this also looks to be a region of significant interest.
In a statement shared with SBC News, the Liberia Online Gaming Commission (LOGC) mapped out how it aims to position LIberia as ‘the global hub for predictions markets’ and the ‘predictions markets home’.
The regulator has set out parameters for prediction markets. Licensees will be issued with an official government domain, local incorporation, SWIFT banking connectivity with payments in euros and US dollars, and appointment of a local compliance and AML officer and integration with payment solution providers and other partners.
“Operators are positioned to launch and scale prediction market services from day one with full access to the necessary legal, banking, and compliance infrastructure,” the regulator’s statement continued.
“We’re also happy to share that we’re in daily contact with leading platform providers that deliver the full end-to-end infrastructure required to launch a prediction market operation from zero.
“As a result, our clients benefit from direct and fast access to the largest network in the industry, covering every relevant service provider – enabling them to operate at the highest level currently available worldwide, from day one.
“By offering a comprehensive, sovereignly backed licence – comprising legal, banking, compliance, and operational foundations that are absent in alternative offshore jurisdictions -Liberia is uniquely positioned to become the primary global hub for legitimised prediction market operations, supporting both B2B and B2C businesses at the highest level of regulatory credibility.”
With warm welcomes in Liberia, blocks and bans across Europe, and a federal-versus-state regulatory battle in the US, fragmentation will remain the word of the year for prediction platforms for some time.
But with the amount of money that these firms are making, with over $1bn in volume on Kalshi over the Super Bowl weekend this month according to some reports, will they really care?