Sweden continues to face a long-running battle against the black market, but according to AB Trav och Galopp (ATG) it is making progress.
The company, which specialises in horse racing betting in Sweden, has reported an overall decline in Swedish illegal betting activity and an improvement in channelisation.
ATG estimates that Sweden’s channelisation rate stood at between 72%-84% in Q4 2025, up from 69%-82% in Q4 2024. This is still far below the government’s ideal level, however.
Most governments, particularly in Europe, eye up a channelisation rate of 90% – meaning 90% of gamblers place bets within the confines of the regulated market.
Despite the progress made, ATG acknowledged that the unlicensed market remains significant in Sweden. The firm estimates that black market net revenue amounted to between SEK 3.6bn-7.3bn (£290m-£580m), and gross turnover of SEK 60bn-120bn.
“Channelisation is moving in the right direction, but there is still a long way to go to reach the state’s goal,” said Tobias Melin, Head of Analysis at ATG.
“At the same time, we see how unlicensed sites use the same platforms, payment solutions and sometimes even exist despite decisions from authorities. This shows that the regulations need to be tightened to really shut out the unlicensed operators.”
Changing times in Sweden
Last year was a transformative one for ATG. The firm was owned and operated by the Swedish government, similar to other Scandinavian horse racing betting firms like Norsk Tipping and Danske Spil, but the Ministry of Finance began relaxing control last year.
The Swedish gaming market was re-regulated in 2019, ushering in a new multi-licence market after years of Swedish government-owned companies ATG and Svenska Spel having a monopoly over betting, gaming and lotteries.
With the multi-licence market now well established, the government believed that control over ATG was no longer necessary. This was partly due to the desire to see the company compete more effectively against local firms like Bethard, Betsson, and LeoVegas, as well as international ones like bet365.
However, the competition against the black market remains fierce. Government estimates from last year put the sports betting channelisation rate at a healthy 92%-96% basis, but online casino channelisation is lagging heavily at 72%-82%.
The industry, represented by the Swedish Online Gaming Association (BOS), argues that this is due to over-regulation of the online casino market. Both BOS and ATG also want to see loopholes in Sweden’s Gambling Act, which they believe benefit the black market, filled.
In its Q4 report, ATG asserted that 14 of 20 unlicensed sites with the highest visitor traffic had the same platform providers as licensed companies, eight out of 20 offered direct deposits and withdrawals from Swedish bank accounts, and five out of 20 were on the Spelinskeptionen’s (Swedish Gambling Authority) ban list.
ATG and other stakeholders are finally getting their wish, however. In September last year, the government announced that it would look to remove the ‘directorial criterion’ from the Gambling Act, which excludes online games not aimed at the market from laws around illegal gambling.