With the Prestbury Cup looking tighter than the odds suggest and a wide-open Gold Cup on the horizon, Amelco’s Global Head of Trading, Matt Parr, alongside Senior Racing Traders Owen Mached and Stephen Bailey, break down the market dynamics, handicap plots, and value plays defining this year’s Cheltenham Festival.
SBC News: With Cheltenham just around the corner, how do you see this year’s Festival shaping up? Are there any particular rivalries or storylines you think will dominate the week?
Amelco: It looks competitive rather than predictable. There isn’t an obvious ‘Irish certainty’ across the four days, which adds real spice to the week. The age-old GB versus Ireland battle could be closer than the betting suggests – Ireland 1–6, GB 5–1, Tie 12–1 tells its own story (at the time of writing).
The obvious heavyweight duel between Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott remains, but this year the broader narrative feels like Britain trying to claw back ground from the dominant Irish yards.
The Constitution Hill saga appears to be concluding and after a recent romp at Southwell, it looks unlikely that he will take up another chance at the Champion Hurdle, which could significantly affect other runners’ destinations.
SBCN: The Gold Cup is always one of the highlights of the week. Do you see a genuine challenger to the market leaders this year or does the outcome remain predictable?
Amelco: The Cheltenham Gold Cup remains the pinnacle of the week, and this renewal looks competitive rather than a procession. All of the front eight in the betting have something to prove, so don’t be surprised if we see a big-priced winner.
I Am Maximus looks a granite each-way bet – he reminds us very much of Hedgehunter, who placed in the Gold Cup after winning the Grand National. Affordale Fury, if you forgive that last run, could give backers a huge run for their money at around 40/1.
Fact To File has shown real depth over staying trips, and Gaelic Warrior is an improving stayer with connections desperate to land this prize. There are genuine challengers to the market leaders.
This doesn’t scream odds-on certainty – it feels like a proper, searching Gold Cup. From a British angle, the Ben Pauling yard has been flying. He’s described this as his best-ever team, and The JukeBox Man is a live contender if lining up. That stable momentum could translate into a big week.
SBCN: Irish trainers have had the upper hand in recent years. Is the balance of power shifting at all, or are we likely to see another strong week for the Irish yards?
Amelco: Irish yards have had the upper hand in recent years, but we can’t see an Irish banker across the four days this time. It wouldn’t surprise us if the final tally was much closer.
Yes, Mullins and Elliott will arrive mob-handed, and Elliott in particular has been unusually quiet in previews – which is interesting in itself. But Britain doesn’t look without ammunition.
The likes of Dan Skelton and Paul Nicholls will aim to redress the balance, even if we are not entirely convinced Skelton will have a vintage week. Of the Irish raiders, Wodhooh in the Mares Hurdle looks to hold the strongest claims.
SBC: Cheltenham handicaps are rarely simple. Is there a race this year where you think the market might be underestimating one or two runners?
Amelco: Cheltenham handicaps are never simple, but a few jump off the page. The Fred Winter always rewards a well-plotted runner, and Ammes at around 10/1 was a very useful Flat performer who could have a few pounds in hand off his jumps mark. A recent blowout on the Flat should have him spot-on.
In the same race, Genealogy at around 25/1 looks well-positioned mark-wise. Trained by Denis Hogan, he has had three quiet runs, including a fine third at Ascot under a tender ride behind a leading Triumph fancy.
Looking at the Grand Annual, we quite like Inthepocket at around 20/1. He’s had four quick runs in recent months, and we can see the handicapper giving him a workable mark. A Grade 1 winning hurdler at Aintree three years ago, and from a yard with a strong record in this race – that profile fits.
SBCN: From a jockey and stable perspective, who comes into the week particularly well set? Are there any yards or riders you think could surprise people?
Amelco: We can almost look away from the obvious pick of Paul Townend this year. Even the JP McManus silks will be shared among leading riders like Walsh and Cobden.
Harry Skelton is the obvious British jockey to side with, though we’re not convinced his yard will have a stormer as alluded to earlier. We think Henderson could have a few winners, and Nico de Boinville may well hit form at the right time.
Considering the Pauling yard, it would be dismissive not to mention Ben Jones. The Welsh jockey is already a Festival winner and could have a big week riding for a red-hot stable when he gets the chance.
SBCN: Looking at the novice races, which division excites you most? Are there any horses you think could emerge as genuine stars over the next few seasons?
Amelco: The novice division is particularly exciting this year. Sober is the one we really like, whichever race he runs in. He bolted up in the Moscow Flyer and has been overlooked in the betting. A winner at Royal Ascot as well, he’d be suited by a strongly run race and looks capable of holding his own in top-grade company beyond novice level next season.
Minnella Study in the Triumph is 3-from-3 over hurdles, and his easy Cheltenham win in December has already been franked. If he were trained by one of the bigger yards, he’d likely be favourite or close to it, so we’d expect him to start nearer 7/2 than the 7/1 currently available.
Of the novice divisions, the staying types excite us most – there’s depth, and we could easily see one or two develop into Gold Cup horses of the future. Ultimately, this year’s Festival feels open, competitive and narrative-rich.
The Gold Cup doesn’t look a foregone conclusion, the British versus Irish rivalry could tighten, handicap plots are lurking, and the novice races may well introduce us to the next wave of stars. In short, it feels like a proper Cheltenham.