Google will begin permitting advertising for certain prediction markets in the United States on Jan. 21, changing how the company classifies these platforms within its advertising framework. Under the revised policy, eligible prediction markets will fall under Google’s financial services advertising rules rather than its gambling restrictions, marking a notable shift in access to paid promotion.
The update applies only to platforms that meet a narrow definition set by Google. The company said it will allow ads solely from “platforms that facilitate the listing of or provide customer access Exchange-Listed Event Contracts related to economics, sports or current events.” The change does not open Google Ads to prediction markets broadly, and most operators will remain excluded.
Federal authorization as the key requirement
Only prediction market operators operating under federal oversight may advertise. Eligible companies must either hold approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market for event-based contracts or be registered with the National Futures Association as a brokerage offering access to contracts listed on an approved exchange.
Google made clear that regulatory standing outweighs the nature of the contracts themselves. Platforms operating offshore or without clear federal authorization remain excluded, even if they have significant market presence.
A Google spokesperson confirmed that the advertising change is not connected to the company’s partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket. That agreement focused on displaying aggregated prediction market data in Google Finance and search features, allowing users to view estimates tied to economic indicators or election outcomes.
Kalshi and Polymarket have argued that their products should fall under commodities regulation rather than gambling laws, a view challenged by some state attorneys general and federal lawmakers.
Certification process and remaining limits
Meeting federal requirements does not guarantee advertising approval. Companies must apply for certification and show compliance with Google’s advertising policies, applicable regulations, and local laws. Certification applies on a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction basis, and ads may run only in approved locations.
Nevada is specifically excluded under the policy. The state is involved in legal disputes related to prediction markets, and Kalshi is subject to a court order barring it from offering sports-related contracts there.
Google also reaffirmed existing prohibitions. Binary options remain fully banned, including related affiliate or educational advertising. Unregulated prediction platforms, tokenized prediction services, and advisory-focused businesses also remain ineligible.
Implications for regulated markets
Industry observers view the move as increasing visibility for federally regulated prediction markets while keeping compliance standards high. RAAS Lab co-founder Thomas Ives said the change reflects earlier product integration efforts.
“The reclassification of prediction markets as financial instruments rather than gambling products represents the commercialization of Google’s partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket last year,” Ives said.
He added, “By integrating real-time odds into Google search and finance, Google validated that users want this data, which is highly aligned with American culture and social media activity. Now it’s letting these providers bid for that attention.”
Source:
“Google Opens U.S. Ads to Federally Regulated Prediction Markets”, news.worldcasinodirectory.com, January 15, 2026
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