A new nationwide poll shows that most Americans believe prediction markets should be available to everyone. Conducted by Axis Research, the survey found that 89% of voters agree with the statement, “Even if I don’t participate in these types of markets, I believe all Americans should have access and the option to decide for themselves.” More than half (54%) expressed strong agreement with this position.
Overall, 70% of respondents think Americans should be able to invest in specific outcomes—such as gold prices, election results, or agriculture futures. Support spans all demographics, with 75% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats backing access, and strong approval even among nonparticipants at 65%.
Voters View Markets as Investments, Not Gambling
The poll results show a clear distinction in the public’s mind between gambling and market participation. Nearly nine in ten voters (89%) see activities like stock trading, mutual funds, and commodities as “financial investments,” compared with just 11% who consider them a form of gambling. Reflecting that belief, 79% of respondents said oversight should come from federal regulators rather than state gaming commissions.
This preference for federal supervision transcends party, income, and ethnicity, signaling broad agreement that prediction markets operate more like financial instruments than games of chance.
Sports Prediction Platforms Seen as Analytical Tools
Respondents also drew a line between sports prediction markets and traditional gambling. About 63% agreed that “prediction markets are aggregating information from thousands of individuals to produce a real-time probability of a sports outcome and should be considered analysis more than gambling.” Another 60% said that participating in such markets “requires knowledge and analysis similar to financial investing,” while 59% believe the forecasts produced by these platforms create public value for “the media, leagues, and owners.”
Concerns About State-Level Oversight
When asked about potential state regulation, two-thirds of voters (67%) said transferring authority to state gaming commissions would primarily serve as a “power play by states to get more money and limit innovation,” while only 33% supported treating the exchanges as gambling. Many respondents worried that state control could disadvantage middle- and lower-income consumers, increase confusion, and open the door to inefficiency and corruption.
Axis Research conducted the survey online from September 18–23, 2025, gathering responses from 1,219 voters balanced by age, region, gender, and political affiliation. The poll’s margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points.
Legal and Financial Developments for Kalshi
The poll was commissioned by Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market platform that allows users to trade event-based contracts. The company’s rapid growth has come alongside legal challenges, including lawsuits in New York, Ohio, and Massachusetts, as well as a tribal injunction in Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi.
Despite those setbacks, Kalshi recently raised $300 million in a Series D round led by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, doubling its valuation to roughly $5 billion in just four months.
Following a court ruling denying a preliminary injunction against the company, a Kalshi spokesperson said, “We welcome today’s decision denying the plaintiff tribes’ motion for a preliminary injunction. Kalshi’s nationwide, federally-regulated exchange offers all users a fair and transparent way to trade event contracts. Casinos located on tribal lands offer their customers a fundamentally different product.”
Source:
“Nationwide poll shows broad support for prediction markets”, news.kalshi.com. November 6, 2025
The post Kalshi Poll Finds Overwhelming Support for Prediction Markets first appeared on RealMoneyAction.com.