Malta has begun assessing how to regulate prediction markets, with officials indicating that the country could move early in shaping rules for a sector that has expanded rapidly in recent years. Economy Minister Silvio Schembri confirmed that work is underway to evaluate how a structured legal framework could support the activity.
Speaking during the opening of Blockchain.com’s offices in Malta, Schembri said: “We are actively exploring the emerging field of prediction markets, an area experiencing rapid global momentum which presents significant opportunities for innovation, provided it is supported by clear, forward-looking legislative framework that enables it to develop responsibly and at scale.”
Expanding Sector Draws Regulatory Attention
Prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcome of future events, including elections, economic indicators, and sports results. Participants assign value to potential outcomes, turning forecasts into a form of financial activity.
Interest in the sector has increased sharply, particularly in the United States. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have handled large volumes, with estimates placing their combined total above $37 billion (€31.5bn) in 2025, with some figures exceeding $40 billion by year-end.
Kalshi, which operates under regulatory supervision, has also reached a reported valuation of around $20 billion. Oversight in the US has largely been shaped by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has sought to maintain supervision while allowing the market to develop.
Malta Considers Structured Approach
Schembri linked the current initiative to Malta’s earlier regulatory strategy in emerging industries. He referred to previous efforts in blockchain and digital assets, where the country introduced legislation ahead of broader European frameworks.
“We recognised early on that users need to feel safe is this industry was going to grow, which means it needed to uphold the highest standards of transparency and compliance.”
Authorities have indicated that any regulatory model would focus on trust and operator standards, including measures tied to market integrity, consumer protection, and financial safeguards such as fair payouts and capital requirements.
Fragmented Rules Across Global Markets
The current international landscape remains uneven. In the United States, regulatory guidance and legal disputes in states such as Nevada and Arizona have created a complex environment. Within the European Union, no unified regime exists for prediction markets comparable to the MiCA framework, leaving individual countries to set their own policies.
This has resulted in restrictions or bans on certain platforms in parts of Europe. Malta’s exploration of a dedicated framework could offer an alternative by providing a clear route for companies seeking to operate within the EU.
The initiative remains at an early stage, though it signals intent to engage with a sector that continues to grow. If implemented, Malta’s approach could position it among the first jurisdictions in Europe to establish formal rules for prediction markets, potentially shaping how the industry develops across the region.
Source:
“Malta moves to shape rules for prediction markets”, businessnow.mt, March 25, 2026
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