Elon Musk is making a notable move into the world of prediction markets. His AI startup, xAI, has introduced its chatbot Grok to two of the industry’s most prominent platforms—Kalshi and Polymarket.
On Thursday, xAI confirmed that Grok would now be integrated into Kalshi, offering users real-time insights and context about the movements and developments in betting markets. This follows a similar deal in June that brought Grok to Polymarket, Kalshi’s primary rival in the space.
Kalshi, which drew attention this year with an AI-themed commercial during the NBA Finals, said Grok is intended to help users better understand fluctuations in market pricing. A spokesperson for the company stated, “Kalshi’s feelings about the partnership are excitement only,” when questioned about any unease over Grok’s prior controversial behavior.
AI Controversies Cloud New Partnership
Grok has previously made headlines for troubling interactions. In May, the chatbot provided unsolicited commentary on “white genocide” in South Africa, and more recently, it delivered inflammatory remarks related to Adolf Hitler and the Texas floods, prompting concerns about its reliability and oversight.
Despite these incidents, Grok is now offering features such as a “Market Summary” on Kalshi, including analyses of wagers like “Will Elon Musk create a new political party this year?”
Polymarket, where Grok is also integrated, has not publicly responded to questions about the implications of Musk’s AI commenting on wagers that directly involve Musk himself. Neither Polymarket nor the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a statement.
The Role of ‘Skin in the Game’
These platforms claim to harness the “wisdom of the crowd,” where financial risk is believed to encourage more accurate forecasting.
Musk has previously said that such markets are “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour echoed that belief, telling The Motley Fool in April that “people don’t lie when their money is involved.”
These platforms have already attracted sizable user activity. On Monday alone, $7 million was bet across Kalshi and Polymarket, including speculation over the potential exit of Astronomer CEO Andy Byron following a viral Coldplay concert video.
Polymarket, in particular, gained prominence during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Initially tracking a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the platform ultimately showed strong favor toward Trump. Trading volume on the race reached a staggering $3.7 billion, with one individual reportedly betting more than $28 million on Trump through four separate accounts.
Regulatory Past and Uncertain Future
Though Polymarket was fined $1.4 million in 2022 by the CFTC and barred from serving U.S. users, recent developments suggest a potential return.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan reflected on the growing appeal of prediction platforms: “A lot of people want peace of mind, or they’re anxious and they want to know what’s going to happen… That’s why they tune into the news. That’s why they tune into X. And now that there’s this other data point, which is the Polymarket.”
Despite its high traffic and visibility, Coplan noted that the company remains unprofitable as of now.
Source:
“Musk’s Grok AI is now on the Kalshi, Polymarket betting apps. What could go wrong?”, cnbc.com Jul 25, 2025
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