A New York legislator has introduced a measure aimed at sharply limiting prediction market activity in the state, specifically targeting sports event contracts and other sensitive event-based trading. The proposal, Assembly Bill 9251 — also known as the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events (ORACLE) Act — was filed by Assemblymember Clyde Vanel (D-33) and has been referred to the Assembly Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection.
Restrictions on Sports Event Contracts
If enacted, Vanel’s bill would amend New York’s general business law to prohibit prediction market operators from offering contracts linked to “catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities and athletic events.” The legislation defines an “athletic event market” as any platform enabling users to take speculative positions on the outcome of a specific game or on smaller, within-game occurrences — a definition that would include prop betting.
However, the measure draws a distinction between individual sporting events and full tournaments. Markets tied to the ultimate result of an athletic tournament or a series of outcomes across all games within that competition — such as picking the NBA champion or March Madness bracket predictions — would still be permitted.
The proposal also explicitly bans contracts related to horse racing and other event markets associated with wagering.
Broader Scope: Prohibiting Other Prediction Market Types
Beyond sports, A9251 seeks to eliminate several other categories of prediction markets from operation within the state. Among those restricted are:
- Catastrophic event markets: covering outcomes tied to wars, national emergencies, natural disasters, terrorist acts, or public health crises.
- Political markets: enabling bets on elections or the actions of government officials.
- Death markets: involving speculation on deaths, assassinations, or mass casualty incidents.
- Securities markets: allowing contracts based on the stock prices of publicly traded companies.
Vanel’s bill also mirrors many responsible gambling safeguards seen in licensed sportsbook regulations. It would require a minimum user age of 21, self-exclusion options, customizable spending limits, and bans on credit card use, credit-based wagering, and “risk-free” advertising language.
Legal and Enforcement Mechanisms
A key element of the ORACLE Act grants enforcement authority to the New York Attorney General’s Office, empowering it to seek court injunctions against any prediction market platform violating the law. Continued operation after a judicial cease order could trigger fines of $1 million per day.
The bill also includes a clause targeting potential collaborations between sportsbooks and prediction market firms. It specifies that a provider may not run markets in which a “liquidity provider or market maker” is an entity engaged in gaming activities, either inside or outside New York.
Kalshi’s Legal Battle Highlights Tensions
The proposal arrives amid ongoing legal friction between regulators and prediction market platforms. Kalshi, a federally designated Designated Contract Market (DCM) under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), recently sued the New York State Gaming Commission after receiving a cease-and-desist letter ordering it to stop offering sports event contracts in the state.
Vanel’s proposal could further test the limits of state versus federal authority in regulating event-based trading. As prediction market operators and state regulators continue to clash, the ORACLE Act may become a defining moment in determining how far states can go in restricting federally recognized market activity.
Source:
“New York lawmaker moves bill to ban most sports event contracts”, sbcamericas.com. November 10, 2025
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