Polymarket, the prominent online prediction betting platform, has been granted regulatory approval to relaunch in the United States, according to CEO Shayne Coplan. This green light from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ends the company’s three-year absence from the U.S. market.
CFTC’s No-Action Letter Clears Path
The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight and Division of Clearing and Risk announced a “no-action position” on swap data reporting and recordkeeping requirements related to event contracts. This means Polymarket can operate without the commission enforcing certain reporting regulations.
Polymarket’s CEO celebrated the development on X, stating: “Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the @CFTC. Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing.”
Earlier in the year, both the CFTC and the Justice Department concluded investigations into Polymarket without filing charges. Following the regulatory decision, Polymarket finalized the purchase of derivatives exchange QCX, which CEO Coplan described as “a significant step toward expanding access to Polymarket’s category-defining platform” in the U.S.
From Regulatory Setback to Market Reentry
Polymarket exited the U.S. in 2022 after a settlement with the CFTC related to operating an unregistered derivatives platform. Since then, the company operated internationally while American users remained sidelined, watching as event contracts surged in popularity during the 2024 election cycle.
The timing of the regulatory approval is particularly favorable, coinciding with a growing appetite for prediction markets fueled by high-profile political and sports betting events.
Competition Heats Up in Prediction Markets
Polymarket’s return comes as prediction markets are attracting substantial investor interest. Competitor Kalshi recently raised $185 million, valuing the company at $2 billion.
Kalshi’s sports betting contracts, especially focused on NBA games, dominate its trading volume. Mainstream brokers like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers have also launched event contracts, aiming to tap into this rising market.
Even the derivatives giant CME Group has partnered with FanDuel to offer event contracts, targeting sports betting enthusiasts with low-cost options.
Ongoing Debate Over Prediction Markets
Despite the surge, prediction markets face skepticism. Critics argue they resemble “digital casinos,” while supporters claim they offer more accurate predictions because participants risk actual money, not just opinions.
CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline Pham has described these markets as “an important new frontier,” and some Wall Street observers speculate they could eventually rival traditional stock exchanges in size.
Unlike conventional gambling, users trade contracts with each other that pay $1 if the predicted event occurs, rather than betting against a house.
Political Support and Future Prospects
Polymarket’s comeback has been boosted by investment from Donald Trump Jr.’s venture firm, 1789 Capital, which he joined as a partner following his father’s 2024 election victory. This political backing adds a new dimension to the company’s U.S. relaunch.
With Polymarket returning alongside fast-growing platforms like Kalshi, American traders now have regulated venues to bet on political races, sports championships, and economic trends. The key question remains whether prediction markets will establish themselves as genuine financial innovations or fade as speculative fads.
Source:
“Polymarket set for U.S. launch after getting green light from CFTC, CEO says”, cnbc.com, September 3, 2025
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