Polymarket is gearing up for a return to the U.S. market, planning a launch to coincide with the start of the 2025 NFL season. After being sidelined by regulators in 2022, the New York-based prediction market platform now appears ready to re-enter, targeting American users with a fresh wave of ads and a new waitlist signup.
A series of sponsored Meta ads signal the platform’s imminent reentry. Phrases like “Legal football trading is coming to ALL 50 states this fall” and “BIG NEWS Texas. Trading on football will be LEGAL this fall”aim to attract users in both legal and restricted betting states. Some ads even highlight a U.S. map showing only the states without legalized sports wagering.
Federal Access Paves Way for U.S. Operations
Polymarket’s re-entry is made possible by its recent $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a federally regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. This move enables the company to offer its prediction markets—such as sports outcome contracts—under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), rather than under state gambling laws.
Like U.S. rival Kalshi, Polymarket is framing its offerings as financial instruments rather than gambling products. However, the lines between the two blur. In one ad, Polymarket displayed contract “odds” side by side with betting lines from FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM, aligning its brand closely with sportsbook aesthetics.
Competitive Landscape Heats Up
Polymarket’s return sets the stage for a direct battle with Kalshi and traditional sportsbook giants. Kalshi, which gained momentum during the 2024 election, has recently rolled out prediction markets for NFL and college football games. The platform spent over $130,000 on Meta ads between August 12–18, up from $58,000 just a few weeks earlier.
Meanwhile, FanDuel announced a partnership with CME Group to launch financial prediction markets. However, Flutter CEO Peter Jackson said the company would tread carefully to avoid upsetting state regulators. Kalshi and Polymarket are likely to operate more freely by positioning their products under CFTC jurisdiction.
The rivalry between Polymarket and Kalshi has also turned personal. After Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan called Kalshi a “copycat,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour responded: “We’re squarely in the lead position with a very, very strong head start because of an unwavering commitment to build it legally, build it credibly in the U.S.”
Global Growth Fuels Confidence
Despite its absence from the U.S., Polymarket has built a strong international following. In May 2025, SimilarWeb reported the platform received 15.9 million visits—more than FanDuel and DraftKings.
The company was founded in 2020 and reached a valuation of over $1 billion following a $200 million funding round earlier this year. Its prediction markets were especially popular during the 2024 presidential election, where users purchased over $3 billion in contracts.
With its new regulatory access, Polymarket is set to challenge incumbents in a U.S. market where 38 states already allow sports betting—and Missouri will join in December. As football season begins, the prediction market space is primed for disruption.
Source:
“Polymarket Ads Signal U.S. Launch Timeline for Sports Futures”, sportico.com, August 21, 2025
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