After years of regulatory limbo, political forecasting platform PredictIt has received full clearance to operate as a regulated U.S. prediction market. On Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted PredictIt’s operator, Aristotle, dual approvals to become both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
This decision officially transforms Aristotle into a fully licensed prediction market operator—bringing it in line with established players like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, who have all received CFTC clearance in recent years.
The new exchange, expected to begin operations in October 2025, aims to offer expanded market access, enhanced liquidity, and a stronger regulatory foundation for event-based trading.
“We thank the CFTC staff and Acting Chair Pham for their diligence in reviewing and approving our applications,” said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle. “With more than a decade of experience operating PredictIt, we’re excited to bring that knowledge and community to a fully regulated marketplace.”
From Legal Battles to Regulatory Breakthrough
PredictIt had previously operated under a CFTC “no-action” letter, a limited exemption that allowed it to offer political betting as long as it stayed within strict parameters—such as low wagering limits and an academic-use focus.
However, that protection was revoked in 2022 by the Biden-era CFTC, which alleged that PredictIt had overstepped its mandate. This triggered a lengthy court battle that concluded in July 2025, with a federal judge siding with PredictIt and allowing the platform to continue under revised terms.
Shortly thereafter, the CFTC issued a new no-action letter, allowing limited political trading while full market and clearing applications remained under review.
With Friday’s approvals, those limitations are now removed.
“This approval allows us to deliver the most robust and transparent version of that vision yet,” Phillips added.
Joining the Regulated Market Landscape
PredictIt’s full entry into the regulated market aligns it with a growing class of event-based trading platforms that are reshaping how individuals engage with political, economic, and cultural outcomes.
Over the past three years, platforms like Kalshi have introduced markets on everything from inflation rates to sports outcomes, expanding the reach of prediction markets beyond just politics.
With regulatory parity now in hand, PredictIt is positioned to directly compete with these companies in an increasingly competitive landscape.
Broader Implications in Washington
PredictIt’s regulatory breakthrough also comes amid shifting tides in financial oversight. The CFTC and SEC recently released a joint statement emphasizing their intention to better align their regulatory frameworks.
“It is a new day at the SEC and the CFTC, and today we begin a long-awaited journey to provide markets the clarity they deserve,” said SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins and CFTC Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham in a joint statement.
The two agencies also announced a joint roundtable scheduled for September 29, aimed at fostering coordination on overlapping regulatory areas. While the agenda remains unconfirmed, prediction markets are expected to be part of the discussion given their recent growth and ongoing legal complexities.
As the regulatory environment evolves, Aristotle’s full licensure under the CFTC places PredictIt in a strong position to lead the next chapter of prediction-based financial markets.
Source:
“PredictIt Wins Approval To Be Full Prediction Market Under CFTC”, nexteventhorizon.substack.com, September 5, 2025
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