A large majority of U.S. voters believe that sports event contracts offered through prediction markets are a form of gambling and should be regulated like traditional online sportsbooks, according to new research from the American Gaming Association (AGA).
The survey, conducted by YouGov between August 1–8 among 2,025 registered voters, revealed overwhelming agreement that these contracts, which allow people to wager on outcomes of sporting events, fall under the category of gambling rather than financial instruments.
AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said: “This research has made it clear: Americans know a sports bet when they see one—and they expect prediction markets offering sports event contracts to be held to the same rules and consumer safeguards as every other state-regulated sportsbook.”
Public sees gambling, not financial products
The study found that 85% of respondents identified sports event contracts as gambling, compared with only 6% who viewed them as financial instruments. Meanwhile, 80% said such contracts should be regulated like other online sports betting products.
State and tribal oversight was the preferred framework for most voters: 65% said regulation should fall under those authorities rather than the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In addition, 84% believed these contracts should only be offered by licensed sportsbooks within the states where they operate.
Nearly seven in ten (69%) said that each state should decide whether such products are allowed in their jurisdiction.
Loopholes and licensing concerns
The findings also show strong skepticism toward current operators of prediction markets. Seventy percent of respondents agreed that these platforms are “exploiting loopholes” to act as unlicensed sportsbooks. Only 16% said companies like Kalshi should be able to offer sports event contracts without being licensed as a sportsbook.
Support for licensing was even higher among the general public (84%), though somewhat lower among sports bettors (69%).
The debate comes amid legal disputes, including a California lawsuit filed by several tribesagainst Kalshi, which had advertised its product as being “legal in all 50 states.”
Divided views on responsibility
The AGA report also referenced comments made by Josh Sterling, a lawyer and former CFTC employee advising Kalshi, who argued: “People are adults, and they’re allowed to spend their money however they want it, and if they lose their shirt, that’s on them.”
Survey participants were asked to compare that position with an alternative statement: “People are adults, but regulators and companies that offer gambling products have a responsibility to make sure that there are tools available to bettors to help them gamble responsibly.”
The majority (64%) sided with the latter, underscoring public demand for stronger consumer protections.
Growing call for consistent oversight
Sports betting is now live in 38 states and Washington, D.C., giving regulators a broad framework that many Americans believe should extend to prediction markets. The AGA has also launched a new landing page dedicated to the topic, highlighting research, industry reactions, and regulatory commentary.
Miller emphasized that consistency is key: “With sports betting operational in 38 states and Washington, D.C., consumers expect prediction markets to follow the same rules and safeguards as state-licensed sportsbooks.”
Source:
“Four in Five U.S. Voters Say Sports Event Contracts Should Be Regulated Like Other Online Sportsbooks”, americangaming.org, Sep 10, 2025.
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