Makerfield, a parliamentary constituency in northwest England, has become a focal point in British politics as Andy Burnham mounts a bid to take control of the government.
Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is hoping to return to parliament and subsequently challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership and the Prime Minister’s job in 10 Downing Street.
As is commonplace in British betting, politically minded punters are paying close attention with more than £1.9m matched on the Betfair Exchange alone. This is the largest volume staked on a by-election that the Flutter Entertainment-owned platform has ever seen.
Sam Rosbottom, Betfair spokesperson, said: “As Makerfield goes to the polls, punters have been fascinated with this contest, so much so that the market has broken the record to become the biggest ever by-election market traded on the Betfair Exchange, with more than £1.9m traded so far.”
What are Burnham’s odds of winning Makerfield?
The election has been the subject of non-stop media speculation in the UK – though it may have been overshadowed to some extent due to England and Scotland’s starts to the 2026 World Cup, having won 4-2 and 1-0 against Croatia and Haiti respectively.
Whether or not Burnham can successfully get his PM ambitions back on track, whether Reform UK will upset his chances after their huge success in the May local elections, or whether the upstarts of the British right-wing in Restore Britain will make their parliamentary debut, have still caught more than enough attention, however.
Star Sports’ traders, meanwhile, told SBC News that the firm has been seeing “a few different themes emerge in the market”.
The bookmaker saw early money largely on Restore, coming largely from new accounts and punters who had previously backed Rupert Lowe’s party in general election markets.
The largest bets have landed on Labour and its candidate, Burnham.
Betfair liquidity now gives Burnham an 89% chance of winning the seat, followed by 10% for Reform, a slump of 39% against the right-wing populist party’s chances when the by-election was called after sitting Labour MP John Simons resigned in May.
After Reform, Restore comes in at 2% on Betfair, though the exchange noted that more money has been staked on Restore Britain overall than Reform.
“Where are punters putting their money?” Rosbottom continued.
““The betting has been one-way traffic since the market opened, with the overwhelming majority staked on Andy Burnham and Labour to win.
“We’ve also seen more money matched on Restore Britain than Reform to win the contest, £100,000 more to be precise.
“However, Nigel Farage’s party, who have attracted £325,000 in wagers, are more likely to win according to the odds, they have a 10% chance, compared to Restore Britain’s 2% chance.”
The Greens, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives all came in at less than 1% on the exchange.
On Star Sports, Reform has “comfortably generated the most interest” in terms of volume.
It appears that British punters are not expecting the Greens to repeat their success in the Gorton and Denton by-election, which at the time was the most bet-on by-election on the Betfair Exchange with stakes of £1.3m, before being beaten by today’s contest.
The election was won by Hannah Spencer, a politician with a few choice words to say about the gambling industry.
So, with just a few hours to go until the polls close in Makerfield, where do punters expect things to go from here? Should Burnham claim the seat, could he become the UK’s next Prime Minister?
Star Sports’ odds put Burnham at 1/5, while Starmer’s chances to leave office this year are even shorter at 1/6…