The FA Cup final clash between Chelsea FC and Manchester City kicks off tomorrow at 3pm UK time, bringing an end to another year of the world’s oldest football tournament – complete with the usual fan favourite giant killings.
Discourse around the FA Cup isn’t always positive, however, and a quick peruse around UK media and social media will quickly bring up comments about how the tournament ‘doesn’t quite feel the same’ or has ‘lost its magic’, or some variant thereof.
In an FA Cup special of the SBC News’ Bookies Corner, we wanted to see whether UK bookmakers feel the same way. According to James Mackie, Flutter Entertainment’s PR Executive who provides us with trading sights from Betfair, and Midnite’s Head of Risk, Ben Cullen, this is far from the case…
Bookies Corner: The FA Cup is the oldest football tournament in the world – but is its value still appreciated by bettors?
James Mackie: Yes, the FA Cup’s value is still appreciated by Betfair punters, especially televised matches. We see more engagement around fixtures where there are big cup upsets or matches that go to extra time that grab bettors’ attention.
Overall, during the 2025/26 FA Cup we have seen over £170m traded on the Betfair exchange, with 38 of those matches trading more than £1m.
How big are FA Cup weekends compared to Premier League weekends – do you ever notice a distinct drop in engagement around the tournament?
Ben Cullen: No, the FA Cup is still a major competition. In some of the earlier rounds, will have a much larger count of games. It provides a different sort of atmosphere too with some minnows facing up against major English sides looking to make their mark as we have seen on a few occasions throughout this year’s tournament. What neutral doesn’t like to see a cup upset?
Taking a look back over the tournament, who were the main favourites among punters and were there any underdogs catching early attention?
James Mackie: Looking back through the 2025/26 FA Cup betting, Manchester City were the early favourites at 9/2, as expected, winning two of the last seven renewals of the competition and losing in the final in the last two editions of the tournament. Liverpool and Arsenal were close behind the Citizens at 11/2 and 13/2 respectively. Chelsea came next at 8/1.
Interestingly, Aston Villa took 23% of the money placed in the early stages. They were trading around 19/1 but were knocked out of the competition in the fourth round at home to Newcastle.
Do games between often very mismatched opposition – e.g. a Premier League side versus a National League side – pose any challenges from a trading and odds generating standpoint?
Ben Cullen: Not necessarily. However, when you have heavily mismatched sides, a key factor is team news and player rotation which is something we need to keep a very close eye on. If the strong favourite decides to field a very inexperienced side to rotate their first XI, it can cause a big swing in the odds a short time before kick off which needs reacting to.
Do you find that smaller teams going up against Premier League giants will often catch attention among punters?
James Mackie: Generally, the smaller teams taking on the big dogs in English football does provide interest, and shorter prices can attract more money and speculation on the winning margin. For example, Manchester City v Salford and Chelsea v Port Vale both traded around £2.8m each, despite the home team being huge favourites (City were 1/20, and Chelsea 1/12) and they both went on to win comfortably, as the odds suggested.
Having already caused a giant killing when beating Burnley in the fourth round Mansfield then took on Arsenal and with it being a much tighter game than the odds suggested it ended up trading £5.5m.
We always talk a lot about the magic of the FA Cup. What were the biggest giant killings or underdog performances that stood out for your trading team this year?
James Mackie: Macclesfield v Crystal Palace was the standout giant killing of this year’s competition, and the biggest pre-match price winner of the season in the competition. Macclesfield were 15/1 at kick-off.
Wrexham v Chelsea traded almost £7m and was the fourth biggest match of the competition, despite ultimately not getting the upset that was on the cards for the Welsh side.
Ben Cullen: There can’t have been many bigger than Macclesfield knocking out Crystal Palace as they were ranked 117 league places below. Midnite were 7/1 Macclesfield to win the tie and 11/1 for them to win in the 90th minute. We also saw Southampton knock out Arsenal, Port Vale knock out Sunderland and Mansfield knock out Burnley.
What are the punters saying in trading so far – are we seeing more action on favourites Manchester City or underdogs Chelsea?
James Mackie: 71% of volume has currently gone on Manchester City ahead of the FA Cup final and they are currently priced at 4/5 to win the competition for an eighth time in their history equating to 56% chance to win the game.
Chelsea are the outsiders to win a ninth FA Cup at 7/2 equating to a 22% chance.
Ben Cullen: It’s very much a favourites game with the punters massively favouring Manchester City. It looks as though Guardiola is going all guns blazing for some silverware with Haaland getting a full 90 minutes rest against Crystal Palace; Chelsea look to be up against it.
What about player markets? Are there any particular players punters are expecting to put in a top performance this weekend?
Ben Cullen: All eyes will be on star striker Erling Haaland having netted 26 so far in the Premier League and three goals in three appearances in the FA Cup. It will take a very good defensive performance to keep him quiet. Whilst Chelsea will be hoping for some magic from Cole Palmer, who has been quieter this Premier League season with just 10 goal contributions in 24 appearances.
And when the dust settles on the FA Cup, we’ll get back to Premier League trading. The league looks set to go to the wire this year, who do you expect to lift the league trophy at the end of May?
Ben Cullen: The market strongly favours Arsenal. With The Gunners set to play an already relegated Burnley, and a Crystal Palace side that will have all eyes on a European Final, it’s hard to see them faltering – but they have buckled under pressure before.
We can expect Manchester City to take it right to the wire though with so much quality in their side.