The 2025/26 Premier League season left a lot to talk about, and not just limited to Arsenal’s first title in 22 years or Tottenham Hotspur’s relegation battle – sorry to rub salt in there, Spurs fans…
For bookmakers, the tournament proved to be the usual nine months of intense trading that we’ve come to expect, with punters trying their luck on weekly fixtures and long-term outcomes.
With the final weekend now over, we’re following on from last week’s Bookies Corner with some more details on the season-that-was – with input from bet365 Sports and Trading Expert, Steve Freeth; Flutter Entertainment’s Senior PR Executive, James Mackie; Paddy Power’s PR Manager, Rhys Turrell; and Betway’s PR Manager, Lewis Knowles.
We’ve seen Arsenal put on one of their best league performances in years. Were punters expecting this from the Gunners in 2025/26?
Steve Freeth, bet365: There were many punters that were keeping the faith with Arsenal after three near misses, but in horse racing terms, there was also a ‘timeform squiggle’ next to their name – i.e. ungenuine and not to be trusted.
The betting market reflected stronger support for other clubs, including Liverpool were well punted in pre-season to go back-to-back, as were Chelsea after winning the Club World Cup.
Surprisingly, the best backed team was Manchester United, who opened at 66/1. This Arsenal success will undoubtedly change the ‘bottler’ narrative surrounding them, especially after finally lifting the trophy after 22 years.
Consequently, they now find themselves clear 6/4 favourites to win it again next season.
Looking at player markets, were most punters firmly behind Haaland to get the golden boot this year or did any underdogs stand out in trading?
Rhys Turrell, Paddy Power: Erling Haaland was always going to attract plenty of attention in the Golden Boot market, given his goal-scoring record, but he wasn’t the most-backed player by number of bets.
Liverpool’s British-record signing Alexander Isak led the way in that market, with Arsenal’s new hitman Viktor Gyökeres also high in volume of punts placed.
Lewis Knowles, Betway: Most activity in pre-season, and in the early months was for Haaland, he’s by far the biggest liability, despite his relatively restrictive price. Speculative each-way bets on Igor Thiago were found by a few lucky punters. Early season punts on Isak and Gyokeres – who were both extremely popular – went south.
James Mackie, Flutter: Erling Haaland was 7/5 on the Betfair Exchange this year to be top scorer, having been odds-on in previous years. He was given a 41% chance of taking his third Golden Boot in four years. The other main contenders were Mo Salah at 21%, Alexander Isak at 17% and Viktor Gyokeres at 14%.
On the Betfair Sportsbook, some punters backed Igor Thiago at 275/1 for the Golden Boot in pre-season. He hit a low of 9/2 on 15 April. On the Betfair Exchange, he was matched at a high of 599/1.
Who were the underdogs this year? Did any punters expect someone unexpected to ‘do a Leicester’?
Steve Freeth, bet365: ‘You’re only ever three feet away from somebody who has backed Sunderland +52 on the handicap’. That’s a line I’ve used frequently during the season with the Black Cats being popular before a ball was kicked.
So much so, that we took more money on them winning the Premier League than Aston Villa – they were the ninth most backed side in the summer. The promoted teams had struggled in recent campaigns, but Sunderland’s summer business, with the likes of Granit Xhaka putting pen to paper, had seen their odds of a top half finish shorten from 33/1 into 16/1 by early August.
Rhys Turrell, Paddy Power: As expected, Manchester City – who started this season as second-favourites for the title behind Liverpool – attracted the most interest in the outright market, while Manchester United attracted the second-highest number of bets. Interestingly, more punters backed Aston Villa than Arsenal.
Another notable name was Sunderland. They attracted the tenth-highest number of bets in the outright winner market, which is a strong showing for a newly promoted side. Sunderland started the season at 1000/1 yet still drew plenty of optimistic bets over the course of the campaign – suggesting plenty of punters were hoping they might “do a Leicester”.
Did Sunderland’s impressive run of form, especially at the start of the season, earn a few people a payout? Or did it ruin more people’s accas?
Steve Freeth, bet365: Despite their solid start, their underlying data wasn’t the greatest and they were still going off at big prices. For example, 21/10 at home to Brentford, 4/1 at Forest and notably, 12/5 at home to Newcastle as they continued to defy the market.
What about the bottom three at the end of the season? Were punters expecting the newly promoted sides to fall, or were there any outliers?
James Mackie, Flutter: Yes, punters thought the promoted clubs were the three most likely teams to go down this season. Burnley were given a 74% chance, Sunderland 68%, and Leeds 38% of being relegated, according to the odds on the Betfair Exchange.
Interestingly, Man City’s chances of relegation hit 25% this season, as speculation around the financial charges followed them throughout the campaign.
Is pricing Premier League matches becoming increasingly one sided, with the same clubs struggling while the Big Six and co usually come out on top?
Steve Freeth, bet365: I’m going to say the opposite, it’s narrowed over the years. The middle-tier teams are closer to the traditional ‘Big Six’ than they were a decade ago. For example, a motivated and relatively in-form Manchester United went off at 8/11 at home to Leeds last month – the Red Devils would’ve been considerably shorter a few years ago.
The availability of performance metrics had benefitted both sides of the fence and in truth, in terms of match ratings, the ‘Big Six’ haven’t been dominant in that status for a number of years.
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