More than half of bets placed by Scottish customers are backing Argentina to beat England in the World Cup semi-final, as betting data points towards a France-Argentina final.
Figures from Ladbrokes and Coral owner Entain show 51% of bets from Scottish-based accounts have been placed on Lionel Messi’s Argentina, compared with 34% on England.
The trend is reversed south of the border, where 53% of bets placed by English customers are backing the Three Lions and 30% favour Argentina.
Entain has dubbed the split the ‘McMessi effect’, and many will not be surprised given there has been no love lost between fans of the two countries throughout the World Cup.
“Betting activity ahead of the semi-final shows the sporting rivalry between England and Scotland remains as strong as ever,” said Tom Ritzema, Group Trading Director at Entain.
“While customers in England are overwhelmingly backing the Three Lions, Scottish support is firmly behind Argentina, with more than half of bets placed by Scottish customers on Lionel Messi’s side. It’s a striking split and one we’ve dubbed the ‘McMessi effect’.”
Wales is the only other home nation where England has attracted the largest share of bets, at 46%. Internationally, Argentina leads England by 37% to 32%.
Betano users backing on England’s demise again
England’s opponents continue to appeal to punters in the World Cup. Betano data from the pre-quarter final betting showed that 75% of users from select markets were backing Norway to overturn the Three Lions – ultimately a losing bet.
A Jude Bellingham brace on Saturday saw England come from behind to win 2-1 after extra time in a game that did not go without controversy.
Credit: Orange Pictures / Shutterstock
This time, the Kaizen Gaming-owned operator’s data has revealed that 71% of users are backing Argentina to bring the Three Lions’ run to an end in the semi finals.
Data from selections on the ‘To Qualify’ market on Betano show that Argentina are backed by 71% of users, while in the other semi final, France have been backed by 79% of users to reach the final over European Champions Spain.
Odds on both matches are extremely tight, with France and England the two favourites to reach the final.
The final four are the four top-ranked teams in the world, according to FIFA rankings. This is the first tournament in which this has been the case since FIFA established its ranking system back in 1992.
It was announced back in November 2025 that the top two seeds – Spain and Argentina – would be ‘paired’, as would third seed France and fourth seed England, meaning that none could meet until this stage.
As it happens, all four teams won through their respective paths, leaving the world waiting for what is a mouth-watering semi final lineup.
The world’s biggest stars – Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane, Bellingham, Michael Olise, Rodri and Julian Alvarez to name but a few – will all be looking to play key parts in propelling their respective countries to a World Cup final in New Jersey.
Punters will be hoping for the same from a few of the names above. A mammoth 60% of Betano users are backing Mbappé to score first in the France vs Spain semi final and 34% have backed Messi to score at any time in England vs Argentina.
Credit: Victor Velter / Shutterstock
English representatives come, unsurprisingly, in the form of Bellingham and Kane. A total of 28% of Betano’s anytime goalscorer bets are on the former, with 20% being placed on the latter.
bet365’s bumper quarter final activity
The news comes off the back of a set of World Cup quarter finals which saw over 1.3 million bets placed on bet365’s global boost offerings, with a success rate of 91.95%.
Norway vs England was the most bet on fixture on the UK-headquartered gambling giant’s platform, tipping over seven million slips globally.
The company has now paid out over £105m via its Sub On Play On promotion, likely in some part due to substitutes Lautaro Martinez and Mikel Merino finding the back of the net in the quarters for Argentina and Spain respectively.