Nigel Farage looks a surefire bet to continue as MP for Clacton, according to betting companies Betfair and Star Sports.
Though Farage is the heavy favourite to reclaim his seat, the election has driven a lot of interest among political bettors, perhaps even more so than the election which returned now-Prime Minister Andy Burnham to parliament in June.
Bookies Count-ing Clacton betslips…
The by-election has captured mass public interest, having been triggered after Farage stepped down early last month in protest after a parliamentary investigation into his financial affairs.
Not one to shy away from the spotlight, the Reform UK leader reiterated his innocence and asked that he be judged by voters as opposed to the media.
This has sparked one of the most unusual by-elections in recent memory. Farage’s biggest threat is none other than Count Binface.
Binface recently released a manifesto which went viral, but the bookies seem to think that him winning the Clacton seat would be nothing short of a miracle.
With Betfair, Farage is priced at 1/40 to win the Clacton by-election, while Binface is 10/1. Reclaim Party leader Laurence Fox is currently 66/1.
The Flutter Entertainment-owned operator’s spokesperson, James Mackie, told SBC News that, as of Tuesday morning, £1.8m had been traded on the event, putting it second on the all-time list of by-elections behind Makerfield last month, which traded £2.2m.
On Star Sports, Farage is as short as 1/80, with Binface 33/1 and the rest of the 32 candidates – yes, thirty-two candidates – priced at 1,000/1.
There’s nothing quite like British politics, is there?
SBC News’ Bookies Corner caught up with Mackie, as well as Star Sports’ Dave Jolley ahead of today’s by-election.
Has there been significant volume on the Clacton by-election yet?
Mackie: The Clacton by-election market saw a lot of trade early on when the market opened. Count Binface matched as low as 5.1 (20% chance) and over £300,000 was traded in the first three days. Interest has declined slightly as Farage has become a stronger favourite as we get closer to the actual voting day.
Only three by-elections have traded more than £1m and they have all taken place in 2026. Gorton and Denton traded £1.3m.
Is Farage still heavy favourite, and are punters betting on him or is he too short a price?
Mackie: Farage is a huge favourite and, as of 11 August, is 1.01 on the Betfair Exchange giving him 99% chance according to Betfair Predicts and Count Binface is now out to 55 (2% chance).
As the market has stagnated to some extent interest has declined but we are still seeing it trade at around £70,000 a day in the last week. That would have been higher if the market was more volatile and the outcome was in doubt from how the odds currently stand.
Jolley: This by-election has all been about Count Binface. If the unbelievable happens and he wins, we would be looking at a payout of more than £60,000 to those who have backed him.
The price of Reform has been very short since the announcements from the other parties, and therefore only appeals to a certain level of customer, to drive interest we have introduced additional markets, such as vote share, however the vast majority of interest still sits with Binface, we are currently 40/1 for him to cause an upset.
How difficult is it to price the market for the Clacton by-election when there are 34 candidates standing?
Jolley: Pricing any market with many entries can be tricky, but this is very different with very little interest or expectancy around most runners.
At Star, we have always liked to be involved in political betting, so for us, the Clacton by-election has been another opportunity to highlight the product. In terms of business levels we have already exceeded the bet numbers and stakes we achieved for the Makerfield by-election in June.
Mackie: By-elections are more difficult to price as there are more local trends to consider and national polling or previous voting tendencies don’t always inform as they would in markets, like next general election winner. It can be hard to get a handle on how independent candidates will do.
In this case though it’s essentially just Farage has dictated the market. Even when the market opened up, Farage was trading at an 85% chance according to Betfair Predicts and that has taken up the majority of the market.
Only six selections in the market have traded below 100/1 which has basically given them bigger than a 1% chance.