The past couple of weeks have seen a whirlwind of changes, emotions, and predictions for the future around UK politics, and while gambling regulation is going to be way, way at the back of most policymakers minds, it will undoubtedly be affected by these developments.
On Thursday 7 May, British voters took to the polls for English local elections and Scottish and Welsh devolved assemblies.
The result was a huge victory for the right-wing populist Reform UK in English local councils and for the Scottish and Welsh nationalists which cemented leadership in their respective nations, while the Green Party of England and Wales also made significant gains.
This has dealt a huge blow to the already-low confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour government. More than 80 Labour MPs are now calling for him to step down, and he is facing active leadership challenges from Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting, while Angela Rayner also looks to be considering her chances.
For betting industry stakeholders, I’m going to attempt to use my background at the University of Hull’s School of Politics and University of Leeds’ School of Media and Communication to offer some perspective on what these developments could mean.
Burnham down the gambling house
Andy Burnham is no stranger to Labour leadership contests.
The Mayor of Greater Manchester and former MP for Leigh and came second place to Jeremy Corbyn in the 2015 Labour Party leadership contest, and his bid to become MP for Makerfield follows a previous attempt to become MP for Gorton and Denton – both as vehicles to challenge Starmer.
It’s fair to say that Burnham, like many of his fellow Labour MPs, is a vocal proponent of greater regulation of the industry.
According to TheyWorkForYou, Burnham has ‘generally voted’ in favour of greater gambling regulation, though this will include his vote in favour of the 2005 Gambling Act – toeing the party line of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown at the time.
Burnham’s stance on the industry since becoming Mayor of Greater Manchester has been more confrontational. He was easily the most notable name to co-sign the open letter penned by Dawn Butler, MP for Brent North, along with a number of other local politicians and MPs, calling for a reversal of the ‘Aim to Permit’ rule on gambling licensing.
Commenting about Adult Gaming Centres (AGCs), Burnham said: “These are high-stakes gambling venues, often open around the clock, targeting some of the most vulnerable in our communities. It’s unacceptable that councils have so little power to regulate them despite repeated concerns from charities and local residents.”
Should Burnham manage to fight his way to 10 Downing Street, gambling would probably not be top of his agenda – but he would also be a leader that the industry should not expect a sympathetic ear from.
High Streeting betting and making it Rayner
According to Betfair, the big favourite for Labour leadership is the abovementioned Mayor of Greater Manchester.
He is followed by Wes Streeting, who recently quit his post as Health Secretary as he seemingly prepares a leadership bid, and Angela Rayner, MP for Ashton-under-Lyne and former Deputy PM, who is now in the clear to challenge Starmer after a potential tax scandal was cleared up by HMRC.
As Health Secretary, Streeting has overseen the Department of Health and Social Care’s (DHSC) approach to gambling harm. He will have also had oversight on the recent adoption of the gambling harms levy, with funds overseen by the NHS, Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID), and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).
One of Streeting’s last actions as Health Secretary was to introduce the NHS Modernisation Bill, announced in the King’s Speech last week. If approved, the bill will put the final nail in the coffin of the Conservative-created NHS England, one of the organisations chosen to oversee the gambling harms levy.
Under his leadership, the DHSC published the ‘Men’s Health Strategy’ in November last year which included a commitment to recognising gambling as a public health issue. While the industry is still chiefly overseen by the Department for Media, Culture and Sport (DCMS), the DHSC has taken a more active role under Streeting.
Moving onto third favourite, Angela Rayner. She has never been particularly vocal about the industry – whether in favour of it or against it. However, as Deputy Labour Leader, she will have played a key role in wiring Labour’s 2024 manifesto, which included a commitment to reducing gambling harm.
During Rayner’s time in government as Deputy PM, Labour remained committed to seeing out the implementation of Gambling Act review recommendations. It could be expected that this would continue under a Rayner-led government, though the significance of her local constituency could influence matters…
The shifting goalposts in local government
Local government power has become a big talking point in conversations around gambling regulation over the past year. This has mainly centred around the campaign led by the abovementioned Dawn Butler.
Butler, along with countless other local councilors, Andy Burnham, and a number of MPs, wants to see the ‘Aim to Permit’ rule around local gambling licensing removed. This rule states that local councils should lean towards permitting gambling venues rather than opposing.
The campaign secured a big win last month when the House of Lords approved the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill.
If approved by the House of Commons, the bill will create ‘gambling impact assessments’ (GIAs), which local governments can use to assess the impact that a new gambling venue will have on a community, and use this to reject an application.
After the elections two weeks ago, however, a question hangs over which councils would be more likely to use GIAs. As mentioned above, the biggest gains were made by Reform UK and the Green Party, gaining 1,452 and 441 more seats in local government respectively.
The two parties are diametrically opposed on countless issues, and on gambling the Greens are generally much more in favour of stricter regulations and a rollback of the industry – as comments made by party leader Zak Polanski and MP for Gorton and Denton, Hannah Spencer, show.
Reform UK, on the other hand, is much more in favour of looser regulations. Party leader Nigel Farage was vocally opposed to increases in gambling taxes last year, and has cultivated an image over the years as a man who likes a drink, a smoke and a bet.
It can be expected that councils now under Reform control – like Sunderland, Walsall, Barnsley, and Gateshead – will be much less likely to use GIAs, or oppose an industry presence in their area.
Councils which remain under Labour control or have swung the Liberal Democrats, a party which is also generally pro-regulation, could be expected to be more likely to use GIAs. The Greens, meanwhile, now hold two councils, Hastings and Norwich, but will have influence over various others due to the hundreds of new councilors the party now has.
The May 2026 elections have changed the game for British politics at every level, and for an industry like gambling, which finds itself subject to intense regulatory debates and political scrutiny, keeping track of UK political trajectory has never been so important.