The US gaming industry continues to expand, and executives remain confident about future business conditions. At the same time, concern has increased around prediction market platforms offering sports event contracts, which many operators view as a challenge to regulated betting markets.
The latest Gaming Industry Outlook from the American Gaming Association (AGA) showed the Gaming Conditions Index rose 1.5 percent year over year. The index tracks gaming revenue, employment, wages, executive sentiment, and casino hotel event activity.
“The legal state- and tribal-regulated gaming industry continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in a dynamic economic environment,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller. “Operators are focused on investing in innovation and delivering world-class entertainment, while also navigating an evolving competitive and regulatory landscape.”
Investment Plans Stay Strong
More than 60 percent of surveyed executives expect stronger revenue, higher capital investment, and healthier balance sheets over the next six to 12 months. Executive sentiment reached its highest point since the third quarter of 2022, with a 21.4 percent net positive outlook.
About 62 percent of respondents said they plan to increase capital investment, while expectations for promotional spending continued to decline. The findings suggest operators are focusing more on profitability and customer retention than aggressive bonus campaigns.
Hiring expectations remained weak for the seventh straight survey. Employee wages ranked as the top expense pressure for 54 percent of respondents, followed by tax and regulatory concerns. Executives also cited inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty as operational risks.
Prediction Markets Draw Industry Scrutiny
The survey found that 81 percent of executives consider prediction markets offering sports event contracts a “very significant” threat to the regulated gaming sector.
“Illegal sports betting through sports event contracts is increasingly encroaching on legal, state-and tribal-regulated operators,” said Miller. “It’s clear the legal, regulated industry views this as a threat, and will continue to fight back and protect the integrity of our industry.”
Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket argue that event contracts are financial products rather than sports bets. Licensed operators counter that sportsbooks face taxes, licensing requirements, and responsible gaming rules that these platforms may avoid.
Executives described prediction markets as “Unregulated and untaxed competition,” a “Threat of further expansion into gaming markets”, and a risk that could “Impact industry credibility.”
Regulation Remains Central Issue
Regulators continue to examine whether sports event contracts should face the same oversight as traditional sports betting.
Hebert Gaban, chief commercial and marketing officer for Latin America at KBET, compared prediction markets to earlier alternative gaming models.
“They remind me of movements we’ve seen before, like social games and sweepstakes, which tried to reinterpret or work around the traditional iGaming model,” he said.
Gaban added: “There’s room for both to coexist, as long as the regulatory framework is balanced. Otherwise, it becomes a game of loopholes rather than real value creation.”
Source:
“Gaming Executives Remain Optimistic as Industry Growth Continues; Sports Event Contracts Drive Rising Industry Concern“, americangaming.org, May 7 2026
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