Germany’s gambling regulator has sharpened its guidance around social betting and prediction markets, placing particular attention on the consequences for people who access such offers from within the country.
The Joint Gambling Authority of the Federal States (GGL) has added a dedicated FAQ section to its website after receiving regular questions from consumers, media representatives and others about these betting activities. The new information explains the applicable legal framework and the authority’s approach to unauthorised offers.
At the centre of the guidance is the GGL’s position that social betting is not permitted under German gambling law. The category covers wagers concerning social, political, economic and other events. Participation from Germany is prohibited and may constitute a criminal offence. People who organise or broker these wagers can also face criminal liability.
The regulator says the legal assessment of an individual service depends on how that service operates and whether people in Germany can use it. A provider that effectively blocks German customers and prevents participation from the German market does not automatically operate an illegal gambling service in Germany.
Access From Germany Becomes A Key Issue
The GGL’s explanation places the availability of a betting product at the centre of its assessment. The authority considers whether people in Germany can access an offer and whether the operator enables them to participate.
The new FAQ also addresses the information available to the public. Media organisations can report journalistically on social betting, prediction markets, related developments and forecasts. The GGL nevertheless says such coverage should inform readers that social betting is prohibited in Germany and that participation from the country is not allowed.
The regulator’s FAQ covers several practical questions, including which betting activities German law permits, why social betting falls outside that framework and what risks people face when using such offers. It also explains the measures available to the GGL when dealing with unauthorised corporate betting services.
European Regulators Increase Scrutiny
Germany’s position comes as regulators elsewhere in Europe examine prediction markets more closely. In June, authorities from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland issued a joint warning that prediction markets must comply with the licensing and regulatory rules of the relevant jurisdiction.
France later ordered internet providers to block Polymarket after transaction restrictions and geoblocking had failed to keep French users away. Dutch authorities have also pursued enforcement, while European financial regulators have considered whether certain event contracts could fall under restrictions associated with binary options.
Germany has encountered enforcement difficulties of its own. Earlier this year, election-related markets on Polymarket could still be viewed even though payment-level restrictions limited participation from Germany. The GGL has identified IP and payment blocking as measures it can use against illegal operators.
Unregulated Activity Remains Part Of The Concern
The GGL’s attention to unauthorised gambling also reflects the size of Germany’s wider unregulated online market. A study commissioned by the authority estimated that licensed operators handled 77.03% of German online gambling spending in 2024. Unregulated providers accounted for the remaining 22.97%, representing approximately €547 million.
The new FAQ gives consumers a clearer reference point when considering social betting offers. It also draws a line between discussing prediction markets publicly and participating in wagers that German law does not permit.
Source:
“GGL provides information on the legal risks of corporate betting and prediction markets”, gluecksspiel-behoerde.de, August 13, 2026
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