Prediction market platform Kalshi made waves this week after revealing a planned partnership with Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence firm xAI—only to quickly walk the announcement back, casting uncertainty over whether a formal agreement exists.
AI Insights for Prediction Markets—Or Not Yet?
On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that xAI would collaborate with Kalshi to provide artificial intelligence-powered insights for users making predictions on real-world events such as economic data, elections, and international developments. The report stated that xAI’s algorithms—partially trained on data from Musk’s X platform—would process news and social media to offer context-driven guidance for Kalshi traders.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour celebrated the supposed partnership in a now-deleted post on X, stating, “No one has fought for truth harder than Elon Musk… Together, we’ll shape the future of news and information.”
A Kalshi spokesperson further told SBC Americas that xAI’s data tools would be applied across all contracts on Kalshi’s platform. But later that same day, Bloomberg pulled its article and published a retraction, revealing that Kalshi had rescinded its confirmation.
Miscommunication Over Timing
SBC Americas followed up with Kalshi to clarify the retraction. A spokesperson for the platform admitted, “There were miscommunications about the timing of the announcement between us and xAI, so we retracted the story. Unfortunately, that is all I can say on the matter.”
While the comment implies that some form of collaboration may still be underway or under discussion, Kalshi has not provided a clear statement confirming a finalized deal. This leaves the status of the partnership ambiguous for now.
Broader Context: Kalshi’s Recent Growth and Political Ties
The reported xAI collaboration followed several notable developments for Kalshi. Earlier this year, the company partnered with Robinhood Derivatives to launch an in-app prediction market hub targeting political, economic, and sporting outcomes. However, the xAI integration was said to be exclusive to Kalshi’s platform and not extended to Robinhood users.
Kalshi’s proximity to figures within Donald Trump’s political sphere has also drawn attention. Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a senior advisor in January, and Brian Quintenz—Trump’s nominee to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—is on the company’s board. Meanwhile, Kalshi’s former general counsel, Eliezer Mishory, joined Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) earlier this year.
Legal Battles and Regulatory Scrutiny
Kalshi’s trajectory hasn’t been without friction. The company is currently embroiled in legal battles with gaming regulators in Maryland, Nevada, and New Jersey, who allege that some of Kalshi’s markets constitute unlicensed sports betting. Kalshi has pushed back, filing lawsuits to contest these claims.
Despite the controversy surrounding this week’s announcement, Kalshi’s interest in integrating AI to enhance predictive trading suggests a broader strategy to expand and modernize the platform. Whether xAI will officially be part of that strategy remains to be seen.
Source:
“Hours after claiming to have a deal with xAI, Kalshi clarifies that it doesn’t”, sbcamericas.com, May 21, 2025
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