Polymarket has emerged as the leading prediction market brand in Europe, accounting for 90.8% of category attention across 28 countries tracked by Blask in August 2026. The next four brands combined represented less than 9% of demand.
European prediction market activity shifted significantly over the past year, with France and Ukraine recording the strongest annual growth while several markets declined sharply in August.
Polymarket remained the dominant platform throughout the period, with Kalshi holding the only other measurable share. Manifold, Myriad and ADI PredictStreet recorded only small portions of European demand.
European Prediction Markets Show Uneven Growth
Over the 12 months to August 2026, France recorded the largest increase in prediction market demand, rising 11 times year on year. Ukraine followed with growth of around nine times.
Switzerland, Poland, the Netherlands and Germany each more than tripled their demand. The UK remained Europe’s largest market by demand, although its year-on-year increase was limited to 22.5%.
The annual figures were influenced by short-term spikes. Several markets with strong yearly growth experienced major reversals in August.
Spain’s demand dropped 95.2% during the month, while France declined 86.6%. The Netherlands fell 81.8% and Ukraine decreased 76.9%. Switzerland rose 19.7%, while Britain increased 77.7%.
The shifts followed increased regulatory attention in Europe. On 3 July, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) stated that event contracts qualifying as MiFID II instruments fall under existing national restrictions on retail binary options. Nine gambling regulators also warned sports organisations on 17 June about prediction market platforms ahead of the World Cup.
Monthly Surges Define Market Rankings
Romania recorded the first major increase, with demand rising more than 160 times in May 2025. That spike affected its year-on-year comparison, leaving Romania as the only large European market with a decline, falling 96.9%.
France saw demand climb six times in January 2026 and more than 12 times in May before declining. The market later faced further pressure after ESMA’s statement and ANJ’s decision to order internet service providers to block Polymarket on 16 July. French demand dropped another 86.6% in August.
Ukraine’s demand increased about 15 times in April, supporting its position among the fastest-growing markets despite the August decline.
The Netherlands reached its highest point in July during the final weeks of the World Cup before falling 81.8% in August. Germany more than doubled in January, stayed high through July and then halved in August.
Britain Defies European Decline
Britain was the main exception in August, with demand rising 77.7% while most EU markets declined.
The difference was linked to Britain’s position outside the EU framework referenced by ESMA regarding binary options restrictions. Regulatory developments created pressure across several EU markets, while British demand continued increasing.
Blask’s data shows European prediction markets remain heavily concentrated around Polymarket, with demand continuing to shift based on major events, regulatory changes and country-specific conditions.
Source:
“Prediction markets in Europe belong to Polymarket and a summer of spikes”, blask.com, September 11, 2026
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