The US sports betting market is entering the 2026 NFL season with slower growth expected at regulated sportsbooks. The American Gaming Association (AGA) forecasts $29.5 billion in NFL wagers, only slightly above the $29.4 billion recorded last year. The outlook comes as prediction markets gain ground in sports-related trading.
Sportsbooks Face Slower Growth
The AGA figure includes preseason wagers, futures bets, playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in March 2027. The forecast marks a slowdown from the rapid expansion that followed the 2018 Supreme Court decision overturning the federal sports betting ban.
Bill Miller, the AGA’s president and CEO, said: “We’re excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. […]
“But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called “prediction markets,” the growth of legal handle has stalled.”
Sportsbook handle rose 4% from September through May, compared with 14% growth during the same period a year earlier. Missouri was the only new state to launch legal sports betting during that period.
Prediction markets expand
Prediction markets have gained attention by offering contracts linked to sporting events.
The AGA estimates that more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue has shifted toward prediction markets since 2025. It also estimates that users aged 18 to 20 accounted for about $5.1 billion of Kalshi’s volume. In 35 of the 40 US jurisdictions with legal sports betting, that age group remains below the minimum wagering age.
Optimove found that 84% of 926 surveyed US NFL bettors were aware of prediction markets, while 60% planned to trade event contracts during the year.
Industry estimates put NFL prediction-market trading volume at $36.8 billion this season, around twice the previous season’s figure. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming found August NFL trading volume was 4.6 times higher than a year earlier.
Legal Challenges Continue
Prediction markets are also facing disputes over regulation. A federal appeals court recently ruled that Nevada could enforce its gaming rules to stop Kalshi from offering sports trading there. New Jersey has asked the US Supreme Court to consider whether states can regulate prediction markets.
The NFL has separately questioned some contracts offered on these platforms. Sabrina Perel, the league’s chief compliance officer, wrote: “It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges”.
Miller also criticized how sports contracts are presented:“These “prediction market” platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment.”
“Kalshi and other “prediction markets” say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”
The Seahawks are scheduled to host the Patriots on September 9 as the NFL season begins amid growing attention on prediction markets.
Source:
“AGA Sees NFL Betting Growth Stall as Prediction Markets Expand”, news.worldcasinodirectory.com, September 7, 2026
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