The South African Bookmakers’ Association (SABA) has urged regulators to prohibit prediction markets until the country introduces legislation specifically governing the products, arguing that the platforms create integrity, regulatory and consumer protection concerns.
In a policy paper released on 27 July, the association said prediction markets operate in much the same way as betting exchanges and should face equivalent regulatory requirements. SABA also argued that existing South African gambling legislation does not expressly authorize either prediction market operators or betting exchange licenses.
The association’s position follows reports that more than R700,000 was wagered through offshore platform Polymarket on the selection of Johannesburg’s next mayor without South African licensing, taxation or regulatory oversight.
SABA Seeks Dedicated Legal Framework
According to SABA, prediction markets should only be considered after lawmakers review gambling legislation, financial market rules, electoral laws, consumer protection measures, anti-money laundering (AML) obligations and integrity monitoring systems.
Until that framework exists, the association said prediction markets should be treated as part of the illegal offshore gambling market. SABA maintains the products are functionally equivalent to peer-to-peer betting exchanges because participants wager directly against one another while the platform collects commissions instead of accepting betting risk.
The paper states that operators should not avoid gambling regulation by presenting their products differently. It also reiterates SABA’s longstanding view that provincial authorities lack explicit legislative authority to issue betting exchange licenses.
Integrity and Consumer Protection Concerns
The association aligned its position with findings published by the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities (IFHA), which identified prediction markets as an emerging threat to sports integrity.
SABA warned: “These concerns become particularly acute when prediction markets extend beyond sports into political elections, legislative decisions, public appointments, regulatory outcomes and financial events.”
The paper argues that exchange-style products allow participants to profit from losing outcomes or underperformance, increasing opportunities for match-fixing, insider manipulation and market abuse. It also states that South Africa currently lacks systems capable of monitoring manipulation tied to political prediction markets, creating “a substantial regulatory blind spot”.
Beyond integrity concerns, SABA highlighted AML challenges associated with peer-to-peer transactions, cross-border activity and crypto-assets. It added: “Where offshore prediction market operators are involved, South African authorities may have little practical ability to obtain transactional information or enforce compliance obligations.”
The association also said offshore prediction market operators are not subject to South African responsible gambling requirements, including self-exclusion systems, advertising restrictions or dispute resolution processes. It further argued that gambling-related revenue leaves South Africa without generating tax income or supporting the domestic economy.
Concluding its recommendations, the association stated: “Until South African Gambling Regulators have enacted a comprehensive legal framework addressing licensing, integrity monitoring, consumer protection, anti-money laundering compliance and taxation, SABA submits that betting prediction markets cannot and should not be authorised to operate in South Africa and should be treated as exchange-style betting products falling outside the scope of the current legislative framework.”
Source:
“South African Bookmakers’ Association calls for ban on prediction markets amid integrity concerns”, igamingbusiness.com, July 28, 2026
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