Singapore has reported continued activity linked to prediction markets despite a formal ban introduced in December 2024. Authorities classified Polymarket as an unregulated gambling platform and warned that accessing it would breach rules set by the Gambling Regulatory Authority.
Users attempting to enter the platform receive notices that they may be violating the law. Penalties include fines of up to SG10,000, jail terms of up to six months, or both. Legal betting options remain limited to Singapore Pools, which offers lotteries, sports wagering, and horse racing under state oversight.
Wagering Activity Persists After Ban
Officials have observed steady participation in offshore prediction markets, covering topics from sports and politics to everyday events. Betting has included outcomes tied to the Singapore Grand Prix and the 2025 general election, as well as routine forecasts such as weather conditions.
During April, daily wagers on temperature outcomes reached as high as SG$127,160. On 17 April, participants staked nearly SG$158,725 on whether the temperature would reach 33°C. Authorities continue to warn that those who bypass restrictions do so at their own risk.
Scrutiny Grows Over Suspicious Trades
Prediction markets have also faced criticism following a series of closely timed bets linked to geopolitical developments. One trader using the name “Magamyman” placed a US$550,000 wager predicting the removal of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shortly before he was assassinated. Another bet on a US strike against Iran was recorded on 28 February, shortly before such an event occurred.
These cases have raised concerns about potential misuse of information. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have connections to the Trump administration, with Donald Trump Jr acting as an advisor to both platforms.
Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong recently delayed plans to launch legal sports betting after a rise in prediction market activity. In a statement issued on 14 April, officials noted that trading volume reached US$64 billion in 2025, up 200% from the previous year. “Given these latest developments, as a responsible government, it is necessary to conduct a more in-depth study into the operations of these emerging models and platforms,” officials said.
Global Responses Vary Across Jurisdictions
While Singapore maintains restrictions, other jurisdictions are examining how to approach prediction markets. Gibraltar has already issued its first license in this area, granting approval to Predict Street Ltd under existing legislation before updated laws took effect. Officials cited economic pressures, including changes to UK tax policies, as a factor influencing the decision.
Malta has also begun evaluating regulatory options for this particular sector. Economy Minister Silvio Schembri confirmed that authorities are studying how a structured framework could support the sector’s growth. He linked the effort to previous initiatives where Malta introduced early legislation in developing industries such as blockchain and digital assets.
In the United Kingdom, regulators have clarified that prediction markets fall within existing gambling laws. The UK Gambling Commission stated that while interest in such platforms has expanded, the concept aligns with established regulatory definitions.
Singapore continues to monitor developments while reinforcing its stance that unauthorized participation carries legal consequences.
Source:
“Singapore sees rise in illegal prediction market wagers”, igamingbusiness.com, April 21, 2026
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