President Donald Trump has voiced support for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), urging it to retain exclusive authority over prediction markets as legal disputes escalate across the United States. His Truth Social comments come amid growing conflict over whether these markets are financial products or gambling services.
Trump wrote that “It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive.” He also said his administration was setting “rules of the road” that would serve as the “Gold Standard for the States,” framing federal oversight as essential for stability and growth.
The remarks come as the CFTC faces lawsuits and enforcement actions involving states including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York. At issue is whether contracts traded on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket fall under federal derivatives regulation or state gambling laws. Several states have moved to restrict or ban such products, triggering counteraction from federal regulators.
Federal vs State Control at the Center of Dispute
The conflict has intensified as prediction markets expand into sports, elections, and geopolitical outcomes. States argue these platforms function as gambling and should fall under local oversight. The CFTC maintains that federally listed event contracts fall under its exclusive jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Trump echoed that position while criticizing state-level efforts. He singled out officials including Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker. Each has taken regulatory or political action against prediction markets.
Minnesota has already banned prediction markets outright, becoming the first state to criminalize them under legislation signed by Governor Tim Walz. Other states remain involved in related litigation as the federal-state divide widens.
Industry Framing and Economic Competition
Trump also framed prediction markets as part of broader financial innovation, linking them to global competition in emerging markets. He wrote that “Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market,” adding, “It is a major Industry, and we must protect it.”
His position aligns with industry arguments that prediction markets function as regulated financial instruments rather than gambling products. The CFTC has similarly argued that federal law grants it exclusive authority over designated market contracts.
Trump also praised CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, calling him “doing a great job,” as litigation continues. Selig currently serves as the sole commissioner on the agency’s typically five-member panel, a point of political scrutiny in Washington.
Political Pressure and Expanding Scrutiny
Lawmakers have increased oversight of prediction markets, citing concerns about insider trading, manipulation, and political betting activity. Congressional committees have launched investigations into firms including Kalshi and Polymarket, while proposals seek to restrict or ban certain categories of contracts.
Trump’s stance marks a shift from earlier skepticism, when he compared aspects of the sector to a casino. His latest comments instead emphasize federal control and industry protection.
The president and his family also maintain financial ties to related ventures, drawing additional attention to regulatory debates. As lawsuits expand and more states consider restrictions, courts are expected to determine whether prediction markets remain under federal oversight or shift toward state gambling regulation.
Source:
“Trump voices support for CFTC in battle for authority to regulate prediction markets”, washingtonexaminer.com, May 26, 2026
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