The FIFA World Cup became a defining event for the US prediction market sector, accelerating customer adoption and increasing its presence alongside traditional sportsbooks. New estimates suggest the tournament marked a significant shift in sports-related event contracts.
H2 Gambling Capital estimated that prediction markets accounted for approximately 27% of all legal US sports betting activity during the World Cup. At the beginning of 2026, the sector represented about 9% of the market. The comparison is based on publicly available information from the tournament’s first month and remains an estimate because sportsbooks and prediction markets report activity differently. Sportsbooks have also yet to publish their complete tournament figures.
Tournament Drives Trading Activity
Kalshi experienced the strongest growth during the competition. Bloomberg reported that the platform repeatedly established new trading records, with activity reaching almost 10 times the levels seen earlier in the year and surpassing the previous peak recorded during the New York Knicks’ playoff run.
Mobile analytics from Apptopia showed Kalshi attracted more daily app users than DraftKings and FanDuel during the World Cup.
According to comments reported by CNBC, Kalshi said it gained 3 million new users over the course of the tournament. User-generated figures from Dune Analytics also indicated that Kalshi processed more than twice the trading volume recorded by Polymarket during the same period.
Prediction market operators expanded their visibility through advertising campaigns and a broader range of sports-related contracts. Kalshi also secured digital advertising boards at matches in the latter stages of the competition.
Industry Competition Continues to Build
Analysts believe the World Cup highlighted the growing overlap between prediction markets and conventional sportsbooks. Ian Moore, an analyst at Bernstein, said the momentum has “put feet to the fire for these traditional sportsbooks to start offering a similar service.” He added that prediction markets represent “a new opportunity for everyone.”
Federal rules also allow prediction market operators to serve customers in states where sports betting remains unavailable. They may also accept customers aged 18 or older, while sportsbooks generally require customers to be at least 21.
Established betting companies have begun introducing prediction market products as competition increases.
A FanDuel spokesperson said the company could not comment on wider market developments before releasing financial results but stated that the “World Cup has seen record interest from our customers throughout the competition, with the top 10 soccer games by handle in our history all coming during this year’s tournament.”
Despite the rapid expansion, H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin suggested prediction markets are serving a particular segment of customers rather than replacing sportsbooks outright.
“It’s pretty clear that prediction markets have had a very good World Cup,” Birkin said.
He added: “I think they are less of a threat than some people make out, but they are definitely eating around the edges and these customers will allow them to continue growing their business.”
Birkin also said: “It’s clearly a product that resonates with a certain segment of the bettors. It’s a headwind for the sportsbooks.”
Source:
“Prediction Markets Swell to 27% of Sports Bets During World Cup”, finance.yahoo.com, Jul 19, 2026
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