NFL fans typically need only look at a game’s location to guess who is the likely favorite, but not this week. The 14 games on the NFL Week 6 schedule features eight road favorites, a rarity in the NFL, according to TheLines, which tracks odds in U.S. regulated sports betting markets.
Two of those road favorites are favored by 7 points or more, according to a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including BetAmerica, BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, SugarHouse, and Unibet. That includes the Los Angeles Rams, who are 10.5-point road favorites over the New York Giants, the first double-digit road favorite of the season.
Through the first five weeks of the season, 26 games have featured road favorites. And those road favorites have fared particularly well in those games, outperforming the consensus line by a combined 7.5 points while compiling a 17-9 record. Looking through historical betting data, road teams have covered the spread about 51% of the time over the last 20 years.
“Home-field advantage is still an essential factor of every betting line in the NFL, but the advantage has narrowed in recent years,” said Stephen Andress, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “As a result, road favorites have become increasingly common. Still, it’s not often that the majority of the schedule features a road favorite.”
The consensus point spreads for Week 6 games, as of Monday, Oct. 11:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles; over/under 51.5
- Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars; over/under 45.5
- Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears; over/under 45
- Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Detroit Lions; over/under 48.5
- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-10); over/under 43
- Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at New York Giants; over/under 47.5
- Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) at Washington Football Team; over/under 55.5
- Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-1); over/under 46
- Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5); over/under 50.5
- Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-2.5); over/under 51.5
- Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3); over/under 44.5
- Dallas Cowboys (-4) at New England Patriots; over/under 49.5
- Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5); over/under 42.5
- Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans; over/under 53.5
To access the updated futures lines for every NFL team, and for more analysis, visit TheLines.com/odds/super-bowl. To access Week 6 odds, visit www.thelines.com/nfl-week-6-odds-2021/.
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