The NFL’s Week 14 will feature a greater percentage of home favorites than any other week this season. But the NFL has not been particularly home friendly so far, according to TheLines.com, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.
Eleven of this week’s 14 games feature home favorites as of Monday, according to a consensus of that nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars, and PointsBet. The New Orleans Saints (-6) over the hapless New York Jets, the Dallas Cowboys (-5) over the Washington Football Team, and the Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) over the struggling Houston Texans are the only games on this week’s schedule that buck the home-heavy trend.
But 2021 has hardly been a schedule dominated by home teams. Through the season’s first 13 weeks, home teams are 81-108-1 against the spread for a winning percentage of 42.6% which is down from nearly 49% in 2020. This year’s home record against the spread is also well below the historic winning percentage, too. Home teams have gone 1,463-1,549-76 against the spread since the beginning of the 2010 season. In other words, home teams have covered 47.4% of all matchups during that span, which includes this year.
“The presumption might be that home favorites would have fared worse in 2020, when stadiums were largely empty, than in 2021. But that is not the case so far,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “Thirteen weeks of football is a relatively small sample, though, and a reversion to the mean would not be shocking. That might be something for bettors to consider with such a home-heavy slate this week.”
The consensus point spreads for Week 14 games, as of Monday, Dec. 6:
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Minnesota Vikings (-3); over/under 45
- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2); over/under 43
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-10.5); over/under 44
- Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5); over/under 52.5
- New Orleans Saints (-6) at New York Jets; over/under 43.5
- Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Washington Football Team; over/under 49
- Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3); over/under 43.5
- Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Houston Texans; over/under 43.5
- Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-8); over/under 43.5
- New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5); over/under 45.5
- San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5); over/under 47.5
- Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5); over/under 53
- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5); over/under 44.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5); over/under 52
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