Smarkets: Trump 2024 odds fall after FBI raid

By | August 9, 2022

Shockwaves have been sent through US politics following confirmation that yesterday FBI agents raided the Florida Mar-a-Lago home of 45th President Donald Trump. 

Though yet unconfirmed, US media reports that the raid formed part of an ‘intensified investigation by the Justice Department into Trump’s affairs as President’. 

Reported to be in New York, Trump issued a statement condemning the FBI’s actions as an ‘unannounced raid’ and proof that “the Justice System had been weaponised against him” from running for the White House again.

Trump’s statement concluded: “Such an assault can only take place in broken third world countries…Sadly America has become one of those countries.”

Following news of the FBI’s raid of Mar-a-Lago, Smarkets Politics reports that Trump’s hopes of winning the 2024 US Election have drastically fallen to 21% (odds: 4.9).

The former President’s slip has seen Florida Governor Ron DeSantis take leadership for the first time in the 2024 Presidential, with his chance climbing to a new high of 23% (4.3).

Smarkets Head of Political Markets, Matt Shaddick, said: “Trump’s potential legal problems had always been factored into his price, but this development must increase the possibility that he won’t even get to the 2024 start line.” 

Despite the US entering an economic recession, Smarkets reports that the Democrats maintain a slight 56% chance of keeping control of the Senate as midterm voting approaches

However,  Republicans remain ahead in the betting to take control of the House of Representatives and are currently given an 81% chance of taking over as the largest party.

Despite Trump’s FBI woes, Smarkets cites that President Joe Biden’s odds of winning reelection have remained stagnant at 12% (8.4).   

“The fallout from the Supreme Court overturning Roe v Wade has undoubtedly galvanised support for the Democrats. In addition, the GOP have been picking harder-line candidates for some key seats, which will likely make them slightly less winnable,” Shaddick noted.

“The Democrats have also seen a small uptick in their chances in the House of Representatives, but the Republicans remain strong favourites to overturn a slim majority and take control. The party of the sitting president virtually always loses seats in the midterms and the odds suggest there is an 81% likelihood of the GOP taking over as the largest party.”

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