Minnesota lawmakers have approved SF 4760, an omnibus public safety bill that introduces broad restrictions on prediction markets and establishes felony penalties for operating, facilitating, or promoting related activity.
The prediction market provisions were not part of the bill’s original version but were added during the legislative process as it moved between the House and Senate. After amendments created disagreement between the chambers, the bill was sent to a conference committee, which later produced a compromise retaining the restrictions. The final version passed the Senate 57-9 and the House 100-32.
Statutory Framework Broadens Regulatory Reach
The legislation establishes “Prediction Markets” as a new category in Minnesota law, defining them as systems that enable wagers on future outcomes of specified events not determined by the performance of the contract parties.
The definition extends across a wide set of scenarios, including sporting events and esports competitions, elections and government actions, court proceedings, weather events, public health emergencies, wars, assassinations, mass casualty incidents, cultural outcomes, and even “whether a person will make a particular statement.”
Under SF 4760, individuals may face felony charges if they, “for consideration and as part of a business,” create, operate, or intentionally facilitate prediction market activity.
The scope of enforcement extends beyond platforms themselves to include supporting infrastructure. Payment processors, geolocation providers, money transfer services, and data verification firms are included under the bill’s reach. The legislation also prohibits advertising and promotion connected to prediction markets.
It further updates Minnesota gambling law by clarifying that commodity and securities contracts remain exempt, except where they fall under the newly created prohibition section. Regulators are also granted authority to issue cease-and-desist orders and pursue injunctions. The law is set to take effect on Aug. 1, 2026.
Growing National Legal Dispute Over Event Contracts
The passage of SF 4760 places Minnesota within an expanding national legal conflict over prediction markets and their regulatory oversight. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin following state enforcement actions against operators.
The CFTC has argued that federal law grants it exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, creating tension with state-level restrictions. At the same time, operators such as Kalshi have launched legal challenges against state efforts to limit sports-related event contracts.
A Semafor report noted that the CFTC is monitoring developments in Minnesota and may consider legal action depending on the final outcome of the legislation.
During legislative discussions, lawmakers acknowledged the possibility of litigation. Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson (R) said a lawsuit was “almost a guarantee,” reflecting expectations of federal involvement. Despite this, a majority of senators supported the bill, citing concerns over regulatory uncertainty in the prediction market space.
Separate Gambling Proposal Fails to Advance
Alongside SF 4760, Minnesota lawmakers also advanced SF 4474, a separate bill targeting sweepstakes casinos and their dual-currency systems. While the Senate approved the measure, it has not progressed in the House.
The proposal remains in the Public Safety Finance and Policy Committee, with no scheduled hearings. With the legislative session set to end on May 18, 2026, the bill is increasingly unlikely to move forward before adjournment.
Source:
“Minnesota Legislature Passes Prediction Market Ban in Omnibus Public Safety Bill”, gamblinginsider.com, May 13, 2026
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