House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil has introduced legislation that would prohibit members of Congress and their immediate families from participating in prediction market trades tied to political events, government actions and public policy matters.
The proposal, known as the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, comes amid ongoing debate over whether elected officials should participate in markets where users trade contracts based on future events. Supporters argue that public confidence could suffer if lawmakers profit from information gained through their positions.
Steil, a Republican representing Wisconsin, said the bill is intended to prevent members of Congress from benefiting from insider knowledge connected to their official duties.
“The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen,” said Chairman Steil. “This legislation is critical to restoring the public’s trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”
Proposal Focuses on Political Contracts
The legislation would ban members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from using prediction markets to wager on government policy, government actions and political outcomes.
The restrictions would also apply to events that come to an individual’s attention through congressional service, regardless of whether they relate directly to official duties.
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts tied to elections, legislation, economic developments, sports and entertainment events. Steil’s proposal does not cover sports-related contracts, which he reportedly said do not raise the same ethical concerns.
Financial Penalties Outlined
The bill would require violators to pay either $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited transaction, whichever is greater, along with any net profits generated from the trade.
Lawmakers would not be permitted to use congressional funds or political donations to cover those penalties. Members who leave office without paying could be referred to the Department of Justice for civil enforcement.
Reports indicate that House Speaker Mike Johnson supports the legislation. CNBC also reported that President Donald Trump backs the proposal and that House Republicans plan to bring it to a vote.
Growing Scrutiny of Prediction Markets
The House proposal follows several recent efforts in Washington to limit prediction market participation among government officials.
On April 30, the Senate unanimously approved a bipartisan resolution banning senators, Senate officers and Senate staff from participating in prediction market trading. That restriction applies to all prediction markets rather than only those tied to politics or government actions.
Concerns surrounding insider trading have intensified following several high-profile incidents. Federal authorities recently charged a US soldier with allegedly using confidential information to trade on an event involving former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro through a prediction market platform. The defendant has pleaded not guilty.
Prediction market operators have also faced scrutiny over political trading activity. Earlier this year, Kalshi announced suspensions and fines for three political candidates after determining they had placed wagers on their own campaigns.
Source:
“Chairman Steil Introduces the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act”, cha.house.gov, Jun 18, 2026
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